Strategic Risk-Taking In The National Football League: A Multi-Level Model Analysis of the Relative State Model

Date
2019-02
Authors
Gonzales, Joshua Daniel
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Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research, University of Regina
Abstract

Risk-sensitivity theory suggests that decision-makers should choose high-risk (i.e., high outcome variance) options when low-risk options are unable to meet desired goals or outcomes. Experimental results supporting risk-sensitivity theory have been well documented and account for a significant portion of the variance in decision-making under risk (reviewed in Mishra, 2014). However, substantial evidence suggests decision-makers exhibit stable individual differences in risk-taking across context. The relative state model (Mishra, Barclay, & Sparks, 2017) consolidates these differences by positing that risk-taking is a product of one of two interrelated pathways: 1) a need-based pathway characterized by decision-makers acting on disparity between the decision-maker’s present and goal states; or 2) an ability-based pathway characterized by risk-taking as an affordance of competitive advantage. The present study was conducted to validate the hypotheses posed in the relative state model and to test whether this framework is applicable to decision-making under risk in a group setting. This study replicates previous findings demonstrating risk-sensitive decision-making in football games (Gonzales, Mishra & Camp II, 2017) and extends them with multilevel analyses. The study also provides evidence indicating teams have risk preferences shaped by relative competitive advantage. Observing these risk-taking patterns in a team sports setting lays the groundwork for a better understanding of risky decision-making in real world group settings. Keywords: relative state model, decision-making, risk

Description
A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts in Experimental and Applied Psychology, University of Regina. vi, 92p.
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