Modelling Outcomes in Canadian Professional Football via Generalized Bradley-Terry Models

Date
2019-03
Authors
Fleischhaker, Daniel Scott
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research, University of Regina
Abstract

An introduction into the mechanics of tackle football, and the factors that differentiate it from other sports, is provided in the context of the challenges these provide in terms of predicting game outcomes. Additional complicating factors specific to predicting outcomes of Canadian Football League (CFL) games are identified and discussed. The Bradley-Terry Model and various generalizations are presented as potentially useful for making such predictions, alongside derivations of well-known minorization-maximization (MM) algorithms and descriptions Artificial Neural Net- work (ANN) processes that can be leveraged to estimate such models' parameters. Various candidate models, parameterized by regular-season CFL game outcomes from 2004-2017, are performance-tested against post-season playoff game outcomes to relatively assess their prospective usefulness. i

Description
A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Statistics, University of Regina. vii, 118 p.
Keywords
Citation
Collections